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If you’ve been seeing headlines or social posts predicting a housing market crash, it’s natural to wonder what that means for home values here in Papillion, Elkhorn, Bennington, Council Bluffs, and Lincoln.

But when you look past the noise and focus on the data, the story becomes much clearer.

The housing market isn’t pointing toward a crash. It’s pointing toward slower, steady growth.

That’s especially important to understand in our local Nebraska and western Iowa markets, where real estate trends often look very different from what’s happening on the coasts or in major metro areas.

What the Data Really Says About Home Prices

According to the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, more than 100 housing market experts weigh in every quarter on where prices are headed nationally. In the most recent report, those experts agree on one key point:

Home prices are projected to continue rising through at least 2029.

While the rate of growth is expected to vary from year to year, the forecasts consistently show positive appreciation, not declines. In other words, experts are expecting prices to move forward—just at a healthier, more sustainable pace.

When the forecasts are broken down into three groups—average, optimistic, and pessimistic—even the most cautious experts still expect prices to rise by nearly 5% over the next several years.

  • The average forecast projects about a 15% increase in home prices by the end of 2029
  • The optimistic outlook suggests prices could rise by around 26%
  • Even the most pessimistic forecasts still anticipate growth, not a crash

What stands out most is this: none of the experts studying the market are predicting a price collapse over the next five years.

What This Means for Papillion, Elkhorn, Bennington, CB & Lincoln

Locally, this aligns with what we’re seeing on the ground. Communities like Papillion and Elkhorn continue to benefit from strong school districts and new construction. Bennington remains in high demand due to limited inventory. Council Bluffs offers affordability and accessibility, while Lincoln continues to see consistent buyer demand driven by employment stability and the university presence.

These areas may not experience the dramatic price spikes we saw during 2020–2022—but that’s actually a good thing.

Experts are forecasting annual price increases of about 2–3.5% over the next five years. Historically, the long-term average has been closer to 4–5% per year, so while growth may be slightly slower, it’s far more sustainable.

This is what a balanced market looks like.

Why a Crash Isn’t Likely—Even With Economic Concerns

A lot of crash predictions are rooted in the idea that prices rose too fast and must come down. But historically, home values don’t behave that way—especially when supply remains limited.

And that’s the key factor today: there still aren’t enough homes to meet buyer demand, even with affordability challenges.

That ongoing shortage continues to support home prices in the Omaha metro, Council Bluffs, and Lincoln markets. Unlike 2008, today’s homeowners are better qualified, inventory is tighter, and lending standards remain strong.

Even through past economic slowdowns, one thing has remained consistent over time:
the housing market recovers—and we’re already moving into that recovery phase.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell in Papillion, Elkhorn, Bennington, Council Bluffs, or Lincoln because you’re worried about a housing crash, it may be time to look at the facts instead of the headlines.

The real question isn’t if home prices will rise—it’s how much and how quickly, and what that means for your personal goals.

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